Pre-launch. ftCEE is just getting started — the site and publications are being built, and the first analyses are coming soon. You’re welcome to get in touch now.Pre-launch — site in progress, first analyses coming soon.

ftCEE Independent research desk · power · Poland
FirmMW PROGRAMME · POLAND

Where in Poland can you actually connect 20 MW before 2030.

ftCEE is an independent research desk. We measure where power is actually available, when it can be connected, and what a firm megawatt really costs. We start with electricity, in Poland.

Connection schematic: a 110 kV high-voltage line, a primary substation and a 20 MW site with a 2030 deadline. 110 kV 20 MW · 2030 SUBSTATION HV LINE
THE PROBLEM

Price is negotiable. The queue is not.

A siting decision for a large load is made today on data that doesn’t answer the question being asked. The team knows the price of power and the cost of land, but not which site can actually get its capacity connected before the end of the decade.

The cost of getting it wrong isn’t money — it’s two years in the connection queue. In 2025, grid operators in Poland refused to connect over 100 GW of requested capacity. Power availability has stopped being a cost line and become a location decision.

over 100 GW capacity refused connection in Poland in 2025 OBSERVEDsource: URE
PRODUCT · LOCATION SCREEN

An assessment of your sites, not a report about the market.

A Location Screen answers one question for the specific sites you’re weighing. For each of three to five locations we check the available capacity at the relevant substations, the five-year projection, the density of refusals in the area, the status of the operator’s development plan, and a realistic connection window.

You get a ranked shortlist and the questions worth putting to the operator.

  • Formata document you paste into an investment memo
  • Time10 working days from brief
  • Pricefixed, quoted after the brief

Location Screen · ranking page

ESTIMATED
#Site CapacityWindow RefusalsScore
1 A 42 MW 2028 Q3 low 78
2 B 25 MW 2029 Q1 medium 61
3 C 18 MW 2029 Q4 medium 54
4 D 6 MW 2031+ high 31

This is the ranking page of the report. Illustrative example.

THE COST

A PPA at €55 is not power at €55.

A solar PPA delivers power when the sun shines. A data hall draws power at three in the morning in February. Everything between those two facts — shape, residual energy, firming, balancing, guarantees of origin, network charges — has a price.

For a 20 MW round-the-clock profile, a firm megawatt really costs around €92, not €55. On a single site the gap runs to several million euros a year.

~€6.5M / year gap between the PPA headline and the cost of firm power at 20 MW CALCULATEDillustrative example

From the PPA headline to the cost of a firm megawatt

EUR / MWh

PPA headline (solar) €55
Shape +12
Residual energy +9
Firming +7
Network charges +4
Balancing +3
Guarantees of origin +2
Cost of firm power €92
The cost of a firm megawatt broken into components. Illustrative example; values depend on location and profile.
THE METHOD

We publish what can be observed. The rest, we label.

Every number we state carries its grade of evidence. We state facts without hedging. We give estimates with the assumptions disclosed. We never mix the two in one sentence.

That discipline is the only reason a decision worth hundreds of millions can rest on a number of ours.

We do not broker electricity, sell projects or earn commissions. Our only product is the assessment.

  • OBSERVEDverified in source
  • REPORTEDstated by a third party
  • CALCULATEDcomputed from disclosed inputs
  • ESTIMATEDestimate with assumptions
  • SCENARIOconditional construction, not a forecast
NEWS & REPORTS

The first analyses are on the way.

We publish short, computed analyses of power availability, connections and costs in Poland — regularly, from data, not opinion. The first is coming soon. Subscribe to the Research Brief to get it first.

FIRST STEP

Weighing a specific location?

Send a short brief — capacity, earliest energisation date and the sites you’re considering. We’ll reply within two working days with a first read on what we already know about them.